Shannon's Journal Discussion Thread, Vol. 5

[Shannon]

Dear Shannon,

You made a prediction earlier (somewhere on this forum) about the coronavirus and I recall you believed there would be 3 waves and that the second wave will be the worst, which seems to be correct now. So what do your models say about how the situation will be like in 2021/2022? I am curious.

Thanks.

The models, in the last month, have been affected by some sort of variable that is creating a lot of instability and I have had to spend a LOT more time to get answers.  The answers I am getting recently are also much less stable than usual, meaning that there are currently many possibilities and probabilities converging with almost equal likelihood of coming to pass, which makes it necessary for me to revise forecasts much more frequently.  This is not unexpected, but it is annoying.  I just have to wait for the disruptive influence to end.

That said, I have not modeled the situation with the virus in a long time because of that.  But my best estimate - and take this with a large grain of salt, because it's just an educated guess - is that we will see the majority of issues concerning the second wave fade out between March and October of 2021, most likely March and June 2021.  I don't know if a third wave is still likely.  

2021 is definitely going to be interesting to behold.  So is 2022.  Looks like some history is going to be made during those years.