09-28-2019, 05:03 AM
There have so far been two further pings made of the above forecast. So far these pings all show a Cat 5 hurricane landing in Florida, but the year does not appear to be stable. Ping #1 said 2021. Ping #2 said 2022. Ping #3 says 2020 and to a somewhat lesser extent 2022. This is what we would expect from weather patterns that are not happening for a reason that is confined to a specific time frame of a certain size; in other words, these all show a Cat 5 hurricane making landfall in Florida in roughly the same time period, but the exact year is apparently not stable. So we can conclude that the conditions that create this event (Cat 5 hurricane) are on the rise, but the specifics of when within the time frame being considered are fluid, or actively being changed. Which is, again, what we would expect from a weather event that is so sensitive to so many variables.
So for the time being, I'll revise my prediction to "Within the next 4 years (2019 to 2022), Florida will have a very high probability to be hit by at least one Category 5 hurricane.", which, given the climate change situation, is something we could have already guessed without predictive models.
Will continue checking over time.
So for the time being, I'll revise my prediction to "Within the next 4 years (2019 to 2022), Florida will have a very high probability to be hit by at least one Category 5 hurricane.", which, given the climate change situation, is something we could have already guessed without predictive models.
Will continue checking over time.
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The scientist has a question to find an answer for. The pseudo-scientist has an answer to find a question for. ~ "Failure is the path of least persistence." - Chinese Fortune Cookie ~ Logic left. Emotion right. But thinking, straight ahead. ~ Sperate supra omnia in valorem. (The value of trust is above all else.) ~ Meowsomeness!
The scientist has a question to find an answer for. The pseudo-scientist has an answer to find a question for. ~ "Failure is the path of least persistence." - Chinese Fortune Cookie ~ Logic left. Emotion right. But thinking, straight ahead. ~ Sperate supra omnia in valorem. (The value of trust is above all else.) ~ Meowsomeness!