Luck Magnifier

[Ruffian]

Last night I had a dream that left me with a profound sense of sadness and loss. Luck and motivation may seem simple and straightforward, but it's apparent these subs are affecting me at a deep level.

There's a saying that goes something like “luck is where preparation meets opportunity.” The dream seemed to bring up something about lost opportunity.

Maybe preparation can be as simple as being prepared to act. And if I'm sleepwalking through my “non-conscious participation in consensus reality,” (as the late Ingo Swann so wryly put it,) then what in me is available to meet opportunity?

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Monday was my first day back at work after two weeks' vacation. I'm still adjusting to the schedule, and have been a little tired. But I decided to play one track on Monday anyway. I have said I wanted to increase my win percentage, and hey! 40% wins! But the ROI was + $7.50, a break-even day. So I start to think, no, it's not the win percent, it's the ROI. And the wheels are turning...turning... and I realize, no, it's both! It suddenly hit me that ROI is profit (or loss) in terms of amount, and win percent is profit in terms of time. For example, if I wanted to achieve an average yearly ROI of 2, I could lose every bet all year long, win one bet on New Year's Eve that hit a monster payoff, and still achieve that goal. If I want the wins to be more evenly spaced over time, then that's where win percent comes in. I never thought about it like that before. There seems to be a lesson here about being very specific about what I'm trying to achieve.

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Tuesday I decided to try playing a track that I usually don't play. Win percent was low, and ROI was negative. I realized I need to pick four or five tracks to play consistently. Over the course of a year, one or two of them would be running at any given time. I've got one picked out already. It may take a year to choose the others, as the summer/fall meets wind down, and the winter/spring meets begin. I've got some ideas, but I'll just have to see where my win stats take me.

It's very encouraging to me that, after playing so many years, I'm really having some new insights. I don't look at that minus $19.60 as a loss, I look at it as the fee for my “tuition!”