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RE: Predictive Models Response - Raz - 06-21-2020
(06-21-2020, 06:57 PM)Shannon Wrote: Since I can't find the original prediction thread, I'll post my latest prediction with the models here.
This thread?
It's a sticky thread on top of the Chatter Box entries.
RE: Predictive Models Response - Shannon - 06-22-2020
(06-21-2020, 11:58 PM)Raz Wrote:(06-21-2020, 06:57 PM)Shannon Wrote: Since I can't find the original prediction thread, I'll post my latest prediction with the models here.
This thread?
It's a sticky thread on top of the Chatter Box entries.
Yes. I realized that after I posted here, but I have been much to busy trying to be productive to worry about it.
Thanks, though.
RE: Predictive Models Response - Shannon - 06-22-2020
(06-21-2020, 10:08 PM)MD81 Wrote:(06-21-2020, 06:57 PM)Shannon Wrote: Since I can't find the original prediction thread, I'll post my latest prediction with the models here.
This experiment is to see how accurate the models are when only one run is done. Usually I do a large number of runs and follow the average value.
This prediction is made on June 21st, 2020. The question was:
What will the average value of the American stock market for each month be in the next 6 months, relative to what it is today?
Results:
June: slight increase from here to the end of the month.
July: appears to be some instabilty which challenges the market, but it seems to maintain a relatively steady position for this month.
August: A significant, but unstable, increase.
September: A very large increase.
October: A serious crash, but far from the worst possible.
November: Market is "starting over", probably has small gains, but appears to remain at about where the crash left it.
Remember the following when considering what actually happens:
1. This is an experiment to see what happens when I don't repeatedly verify the data the models give. Can they accurately predict something as unpredictable as the stock market, when it is even less predictable during these crazy times, while only being run once - which should result in the least possible accuracy? I don't know. That's why we are doing this experiment.
2. These are for the average value of the American stock market as a whole during that month (or in the case of June, what's left of it).
3. This is NOT me showing off the models by making bold predictions to prove it works. I know it works. This is me trying to see how well it works when used in the worst possible ways against the most challenging possible targets.
I'm not giving investment advice here. This is an experiment. You should not consider this data valid until after this period of time has passed, and we can consider what actually happened to compare it to.
Thank you for this. Certain astrological predictions are on the same line as well. From economics point of view it seems like that eventually ( possibly next year) we enter hyper inflation. If you don’t mind can you run your models on gold, silver, bitcoin and real estate as well?
I was previously expecting the US dollar's value to be seriously disturbed, likely degraded, in 2021 based on the same astrological predictions that I used to see what is happening now back in 2014 and earlier.
For the time being, we have to wait for me to be able to make further predictions on things like this using the models, even if they are experimental.
I would not be in the least surprised if the crash I saw in the above prediction was not the only one, or even the worst one, and a bigger one takes place in 2021. But that is based on a hunch, which I will eventually run through the models and see if there is any correlation there.
RE: Predictive Models Response - Zane - 06-23-2020
Is there an explanation why were are having all this earthquake all of a sudden. In my country a state alone had about 19 tremors in 3 days and 3 of them were about on scale of of 5. Same is happening in Delhi. But not that much. Along with the cyclone.
Idk if it's just me but before all this I had this feeling that somehow natural forces are gonna be action...
All this according to me is focused on one fact "survival" and stop being a "spoon fed" society..
If this keeps on happening till 2024....then people might choose to take the red pill... But seriously I feel 2024 will feel like it's far into the future.... I mean everyday.. We have to be alert. Thinking about the choices we make.. Etc etc
RE: Predictive Models Response - Shannon - 07-09-2020
I'm sure there is some explanation, but I don't know what it is.
RE: Predictive Models Response - fab10 - 08-28-2020
(06-21-2020, 06:57 PM)Shannon Wrote: Since I can't find the original prediction thread, I'll post my latest prediction with the models here.
This experiment is to see how accurate the models are when only one run is done. Usually I do a large number of runs and follow the average value.
This prediction is made on June 21st, 2020. The question was:
What will the average value of the American stock market for each month be in the next 6 months, relative to what it is today?
Results:
June: slight increase from here to the end of the month.
July: appears to be some instabilty which challenges the market, but it seems to maintain a relatively steady position for this month.
August: A significant, but unstable, increase.
September: A very large increase.
October: A serious crash, but far from the worst possible.
November: Market is "starting over", probably has small gains, but appears to remain at about where the crash left it.
Remember the following when considering what actually happens:
1. This is an experiment to see what happens when I don't repeatedly verify the data the models give. Can they accurately predict something as unpredictable as the stock market, when it is even less predictable during these crazy times, while only being run once - which should result in the least possible accuracy? I don't know. That's why we are doing this experiment.
2. These are for the average value of the American stock market as a whole during that month (or in the case of June, what's left of it).
3. This is NOT me showing off the models by making bold predictions to prove it works. I know it works. This is me trying to see how well it works when used in the worst possible ways against the most challenging possible targets.
I'm not giving investment advice here. This is an experiment. You should not consider this data valid until after this period of time has passed, and we can consider what actually happened to compare it to.
Hey Shannon, I would like to keep an eye on this and verify it. Which index should I be watching?