05-17-2020, 07:14 PM
Well, I meant to make this thread quite a while back ago but didn't get to it till now. I originally was going to make this thread back then because in one of Shannon's discussion journals we got into some discussion about all the money printing going on at the time and I was surprised to find quite a few people were aware of the situation. I was reminded to finally start this thread again after I decided to re-read about Shannon's prediction he wrote about a few weeks ago which I will repeat here:
In this first post I will focus mainly why Shannon's prediction is most likely to happen especially regarding the currency crisis part and the causes of it. As per the forum rules I will try to deal strictly with the relevant economic stuff and steer clear of any political stuff (besides I hate partisan bickering anyway). I will first say that I had since around 2008 suspected that sooner or later there would be really big economic trouble due to all the money printing the US has done since around 2001. I just didn't know "when" this problem would manifest and like Shannon what the trigger would be. Its obvious to me now that the virus is at least part of the trigger. Just for full disclosure before I was reminded of Shannon's post above I had already pretty much put a prediction down that this currency crisis would happen within 1-3 years from now given recent money printing events.
First I do think its best to Tally up the amount of money printing since at least fall of 2008 till now so that a better idea is given of why such a currency Crisis is likely to happen. For back story I had many of these numbers kept in my head since I was very interested in economics over the year and even considered majoring in it at one point. First there are the bailouts of 2008 then a few months later in 2009. These would total about 1.4 trillion all together using even conservative estimates. The next thing we would have to total is the amount from the various QE programs (1, 2, 3), and other FED schemes to inject money into the market (Credit swaps with the EU, ZIRP, NIRP, etc). I hadn't looked up these numbers in a while so decided to look it up and it would seem based on a article I was able to find talking about it the number is at nearly 12 trillion dollars. However we are not even done yet as this is only really counting up to 2016.
Around September of last year there was a problem in the Repo market (the market for borrowing between banks). This is important as this is the exact market that had problems before the 2008 crash. The FED at first said the overnight injections (of about 75 billion USD a night) would be temporary but soon afterwards they had no real limit on them. Also around October it announced it would buy 60 billion of treasuries monthly. Now if you add the amount of over night money printed to loan out to banks that is about 16.3 trillion. The amount of money used to buy treasuries is about 480 billion. Added to together this is about 16.8 trillion. However we aren't even done there. In March they added another roughly 3 trillion into that and the bailout for banks which was about 2 trillion. So roughly 21.8 trillion since last September alone.
Now lets add that all up:
12 trillion
1.4 trillion
21.8 trillion
=
35.2 trillion
To give you a good idea as of now the annual GDP of the US is 21.43 trillion as of 2019. That means in less than a year the government has printed out most likely more money than the total GDP of the entire economy from last year if we only take in the most recent buying. If we added in the buying from since the last crash then its way more than that. This is why Shannon's prediction along with a few others who have been paying attention is quite likely to happen. Also to be honest this was another reason why I moved out of the US because I saw this amount of money printing going on and knew sooner or later "Karma" was coming. I should also add that this coming week they are talking about voting on another 3 trillion dollar stimulus along with more emergency checks to everyone.
Anyway this post is too long as it is but I think i got the numbers right based on research i have done over the years along with refreshing my memory by recent economic news. Either way based on what I know I am not surprised if Shannon's prediction comes true. You can only break certain rules regarding what we know about economics for so long until it comes back to bite you in the @ss . I do have some caveats I could add to this but I want to see how the discussion goes before then.
P.S. If anyone wants any sources or anything, just let me know and I will try to send what I can.
Quote:Basically, back in 2014, I saw that during 2019 (and later I realized it was 2019, 2020 and 2021), there would be serious issues for the United States. I didn't look at other countries, just the United States. I didn't talk much about it because I was worried that I had misunderstood what I was seeing and it would just make me look stupid to make predictions publicly. But what I saw was that the government and business would "have hell to pay" for past choices and current choices; there would also be a serious disruption of the money supply, possibly leading to a "significant issue" for the US dollar in 2021. I saw the risk of rioting and possibly even civil war, although hopefully it doesn't get to that point. I also saw the possibility that multiple different factions within the United States would be causing the unrest from within the country. The overall takeaway is that the United States government will be forced to "change or die" and that this is inescapable. It WILL happen, like it or not. When this is all said and done, I think the United States will survive, but it will not be the United States we had before. It also looks like this is in part paying for the result of what choices we have made as a country during the course of the entire life of the United States so far.
I had no idea that it would be triggered by a virus. Since I couldn't see what it would be triggered by, or how it would play out, I didn't talk about it. But most of what I saw appears to be happening... and this virus is the trigger, if not the cause. And almost all of these predictions I made seem to be on target. Let's hope it doesn't come to the point of civil war, and that nobody is stupid enough to start a war between countries in all of this.
In this first post I will focus mainly why Shannon's prediction is most likely to happen especially regarding the currency crisis part and the causes of it. As per the forum rules I will try to deal strictly with the relevant economic stuff and steer clear of any political stuff (besides I hate partisan bickering anyway). I will first say that I had since around 2008 suspected that sooner or later there would be really big economic trouble due to all the money printing the US has done since around 2001. I just didn't know "when" this problem would manifest and like Shannon what the trigger would be. Its obvious to me now that the virus is at least part of the trigger. Just for full disclosure before I was reminded of Shannon's post above I had already pretty much put a prediction down that this currency crisis would happen within 1-3 years from now given recent money printing events.
First I do think its best to Tally up the amount of money printing since at least fall of 2008 till now so that a better idea is given of why such a currency Crisis is likely to happen. For back story I had many of these numbers kept in my head since I was very interested in economics over the year and even considered majoring in it at one point. First there are the bailouts of 2008 then a few months later in 2009. These would total about 1.4 trillion all together using even conservative estimates. The next thing we would have to total is the amount from the various QE programs (1, 2, 3), and other FED schemes to inject money into the market (Credit swaps with the EU, ZIRP, NIRP, etc). I hadn't looked up these numbers in a while so decided to look it up and it would seem based on a article I was able to find talking about it the number is at nearly 12 trillion dollars. However we are not even done yet as this is only really counting up to 2016.
Around September of last year there was a problem in the Repo market (the market for borrowing between banks). This is important as this is the exact market that had problems before the 2008 crash. The FED at first said the overnight injections (of about 75 billion USD a night) would be temporary but soon afterwards they had no real limit on them. Also around October it announced it would buy 60 billion of treasuries monthly. Now if you add the amount of over night money printed to loan out to banks that is about 16.3 trillion. The amount of money used to buy treasuries is about 480 billion. Added to together this is about 16.8 trillion. However we aren't even done there. In March they added another roughly 3 trillion into that and the bailout for banks which was about 2 trillion. So roughly 21.8 trillion since last September alone.
Now lets add that all up:
12 trillion
1.4 trillion
21.8 trillion
=
35.2 trillion
To give you a good idea as of now the annual GDP of the US is 21.43 trillion as of 2019. That means in less than a year the government has printed out most likely more money than the total GDP of the entire economy from last year if we only take in the most recent buying. If we added in the buying from since the last crash then its way more than that. This is why Shannon's prediction along with a few others who have been paying attention is quite likely to happen. Also to be honest this was another reason why I moved out of the US because I saw this amount of money printing going on and knew sooner or later "Karma" was coming. I should also add that this coming week they are talking about voting on another 3 trillion dollar stimulus along with more emergency checks to everyone.
Anyway this post is too long as it is but I think i got the numbers right based on research i have done over the years along with refreshing my memory by recent economic news. Either way based on what I know I am not surprised if Shannon's prediction comes true. You can only break certain rules regarding what we know about economics for so long until it comes back to bite you in the @ss . I do have some caveats I could add to this but I want to see how the discussion goes before then.
P.S. If anyone wants any sources or anything, just let me know and I will try to send what I can.
"I have no use of disciples. Let everyone be their own true follower" - Nietzsche