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Experimental Forecasts (Predictive Models) - Shannon - 10-07-2016
This thread is here for me to record experimental forecasts I make on the predictive models that are longer term forecasts. This is going to be locked for comment because this is a functional thread, in that these forecasts are being recorded for comparison to what actually plays out. Not to get lost in commentary. If you wish to discuss these forecasts, you will have to create another thread. Again, these forecasts are experimental in nature - I don't yet have a lot of data on long term forecasts from my predictive models in terms of certain aspects of how they work or on what, so I'm recording these forecasts here to see what happens. I make no guarantees or claims, express or implied, that these forecasts are or are not accurate. This is simply an "I don't know, let's see what happens" type of thing.
Forecast #1: In 2018, Florida will suffer at least one direct hit by one or more major hurricanes, and this will be devastating in impact. Date of forecast: October 7th, 2016.
RE: Experimental Forecasts (Predictive Models) - Shannon - 10-19-2018
Notes: October of 2018: Hurricane Michael makes the above forecast come true.
RE: Experimental Forecasts (Predictive Models) - Shannon - 04-22-2019
April 22, 2019: Preliminary forecast clearly indicates that at least one Category 5 hurricane hits Florida in 2021.
This forecast has not yet been corroborated by subsequent "pings" of the future, but does agree with certain other forecasts I have made concerning this time period in terms of showing significant difficulty and challenge for the United States as a whole during 2019 through 2021.
Further pings will be made to determine the stability of this forecast, but if it is what I think it is, not only will this forecast be stable, it will be unavoidable. Let's hope I'm wrong.
RE: Experimental Forecasts (Predictive Models) - Shannon - 09-28-2019
There have so far been two further pings made of the above forecast. So far these pings all show a Cat 5 hurricane landing in Florida, but the year does not appear to be stable. Ping #1 said 2021. Ping #2 said 2022. Ping #3 says 2020 and to a somewhat lesser extent 2022. This is what we would expect from weather patterns that are not happening for a reason that is confined to a specific time frame of a certain size; in other words, these all show a Cat 5 hurricane making landfall in Florida in roughly the same time period, but the exact year is apparently not stable. So we can conclude that the conditions that create this event (Cat 5 hurricane) are on the rise, but the specifics of when within the time frame being considered are fluid, or actively being changed. Which is, again, what we would expect from a weather event that is so sensitive to so many variables.
So for the time being, I'll revise my prediction to "Within the next 4 years (2019 to 2022), Florida will have a very high probability to be hit by at least one Category 5 hurricane.", which, given the climate change situation, is something we could have already guessed without predictive models.
Will continue checking over time.